Fourth Seminar
Watson Institute for International Studies
November 7– 10, 2002
Seminar Agenda

Thursday, November 7th, 2002

2:00pm-5:00pm

Arrival and Hotel Check-In (Biltmore Hotel—welcome packets and information will be distributed at check-in)6:00pm Shuttle from Biltmore to Grappa Restaurant

6:30pm

Reception

7:00pm

Opening Dinner with Watson Institute’s Board of Overseers

Keynote Speaker: Robert Legvold (Department of Political Science, Columbia University)
Commentator: Karsten Voigt (German Foreign Office, Berlin)

 

Friday, November 8th, 2002

9:00am-9:15am

Overview: The Recent Past
Catherine McArdle Kelleher (Project Director, GARD)

 

9:15am– 12:00pm

First Session: Democratic Deficits?

Liberal democracies always struggle to preserve their basic constitutional achievements and to guarantee civil rights. Thus, discussions and complaints about a decay of these fundamental rights may be often interpreted as a sign of a sound democracy and an aspect inherent in the political process in liberal societies. But a closer look seems essential after the terrorist attacks of September 11th. Western societies now find themselves forced to choose between effective prevention of further attacks and the preservation of fundamental values and civic rights, and seem to be choosing the former. The development of civil society in Russia is threatened by crisis and terror attacks, and the population demands security—as do its counterparts elsewhere. In all three states, measures against terrorism are said to justify sweeping restrictions of constitutional liberties and fundamental violations of human rights. There is a deliberate blurring, moreover, of the division of political power; transparency in the decision making process that precedes state action is being sacrificed to the requirements of secrecy and timely intervention. This session aims to identify the precarious spots and processes in the current political cultural developments in all our societies.

Speakers:
Sarah Mendelson (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C.)
Yuri Dzhibladze (Center for the Development of Democracy and Human Rights, Moscow)
James Der Derian (Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University)

Moderator
Lilia Shevtsova (Carnegie Moscow Center)

1:15pm– 4:30pm

Second Session: Regional Security --China

Seen by the US, Europe, and Russia as the upcoming strategic competitor, China counts on demonstrating its strength through its well-publicized continuing economic growth. But there is increasing evidence that the pace of this growth cannot be sustained unless decisive political and economic reforms are implemented in the foreseeable future. China’s leadership struggles continue; so, too, does it steady acquisition of telling strategic capabilities and technologies. The largest sectors of the economy are still state sponsored with the number of bad loans increasing, and foreign investment still constrained by nationalistic barriers. The communist party still controls vast economic assets, and corruption is endemic on most administrative levels. Moreover, China faces increasing societal problems. Its job market must grow to meet China’s demographic upsurge; the economy must meet growing inequalities between globally connected urban and underdeveloped rural regions, and urgent minority problems. This session will review German, American and Russian perspectives on China’s role as a major regional and international player, and how this role might be affected by both external partnerships (with Russia and the United States) and by future domestic developments. It will also project forward analysis of Chinese efforts to re-establish its relations with Russia and to institutionalize its regional influence.

Speakers:
Lyle Goldstein (Strategic Research Department, U.S. Naval War College)
Alexei Voskressenski (Institute for Far Eastern Studies, Moscow)
Gudrun Wacker (German Institute for International and Security Studies, Berlin)

Moderator:
Klaus Dieter Frankenberger (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung)

 

Saturday, November 9th, 2002

9:00am – 12:00pm

Third Session: Economic Cooperation: Energy as a Model

In all three states, there have been marked recent governmental efforts to establish or enhance strategic relations between Western countries and Russia. Involved are efforts to stimulate the build-up of long-term energy cooperation not only in order to develop Russia's great energy resources, but also to implement cooperative energy projects in each country and all over the world. They are based on the assumption that Russia is able to expand into European, American, and other energy markets, potentially to displace or at least partially replace Middle East oil suppliers. Indeed, cooperative approaches such as these in national energy policy are believed to create numerous mutually beneficial options for the growth of trade, investments and cooperation between the respective countries. Most experts expect that strategic investment and partnerships especially in oil and gas markets will lead to a spill over in other areas of economic cooperation. But others believe Russia’s potential to be overestimated, see a lot of barriers to direct foreign involvement and, thus, believe there are few lasting incentives for important investors. Given these different assessments, the third session will re-evaluate recent efforts in energy cooperation with special regard to the potential for broader economic cooperation.

Speakers:
Angela Stent (Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies, Georgetown University)
Sergey Afontsev (Russian European Center for EconomicPolicy, Moscow)
Wolfram Schrettl (Department for Global Economy, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin)

Moderator:
Robert Nurick (Carnegie Moscow Center)

 

1:15pm – 5:00pm

Fourth Session: The Future Trilateral Agenda

It is GARD’s core mission to look critically at the points of convergence and conflict between and among the three countries in order to address key policy issues and collective challenges of long-term trilateral significance. Recent drifting apart in the transatlantic realm despite the existing fundamental bonds and daily interaction in the economic, political, and military spheres emphasizes once more the necessity of sustainable communication and the challenges of expanding cooperation. Earlier GARD meetings concluded was that the next decade will bring a host of important new challenges beyond the anti-terrorism agenda which each of these countries will neglect at its peril. The concluding session will try to identify these challenges more precisely and look for the points of common effort and continuing disagreement. It will seek to identify the agenda priorities that must confront the national leaderships between now and 2012.

Speakers:
Konstantin Eggert (BBC Russian Service, Moscow)
Carola Kaps (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Budapest)
John Steinbruner (Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland)

Moderator:
John Reppert (Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs, Harvard University)

See also GARD IV description

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