• The dynamic between consumption and dwindling resources, particularly access to oil, fresh water and food will generate crises of poverty and inequality within, between, and among states.


• The struggle over resource wealth in economic development corrupts politicians and private firms, which often times leads to civil unrest.


• The developed world may be drawn into a conflict with resource rich countries to protect its interests.

RESOURCE CONFLICT: Consistently, the greatest motivation for war is the acquisition of critical and scarce resources. As the global population continues to grow, consumption increases along with demand for vital resources generating crises of poverty, inequality, and violence within, between, and among states. While resource conflict has been a recurring theme throughout history, it is likely to become more prevalent in future decades.

Water will likely play an important role in the reconfiguration of the future security environment. The UN estimates that by 2050, “at worst 7 billion people in sixty countries will be water-scarce, at best 2 billion people in forty-eight countries” (Water for People, Water for Life, pg.10). Water scarcity, combined with shortages of food and medicine in underdeveloped and developing countries can severly threaten human security. According to the UNDP, “Some 16 per cent of all children born in LDCs die before their fifth birthday, as compared with seven per cent of children in other developing countries. The average life expectancy in LDCs is 51 years, compared with 66 years in other developing countries.” As Global Civil Society 2004/5 makes clear, countries with high levels of income inequality consistently score lower on the index of human development.

However, resource scarcities such as insufficient supplies of water, food, and medicine can produce results beyond threats to individual or community health. They can impact the entire international community through such causes as environmental degradation, agricultural underperformance, reduced hydroelectric/industrial output, mass-migrations, transportation problems, pandemics or outright war.

Lack of energy sources, especially oil, will also be a major concern to many states. Increasing oil consumption in relation to dwindling reserves will lead to a significant reordering of strategic interests throughout the world. The Middle East , already vital for its oil reserves, will become more important as demand increases. Similarly, other areas including parts of Africa, the Caspian region, South China Seas , and numerous equatorial areas will increase in strategic importance.

The role of resource wealth in economic development has often had a corruptive influence on politicians and private firms argues Michael Ross in a 1999 World Politics article entitled “The Political Economy of the Resource Curse.” Co-opting leaders of resource rich countries to maintain a continuous and constant flow of desired goods serves the short-term interests of the developed world. Once co-opted, such governments risk alienating their citizenry and causing civil unrest that might lead to violence.