• WMD proliferation combined with suicidal terror tactics has shifted multilateral containment policies of the Cold War to increasingly unilateral policies of pre-emption


• The inability to credibly surveil arsenals in Pakistan , North Korea , Iran as well as new challenges to the enforcement of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty pose an imminent threat to global security.

WMD PROLIFERATION: The proliferation of chemical, biological and nuclear WMD equalizes the risks and political power across the globe by re-introducing the risk to the militarily infrastructure and civilian populations of advanced nations in North America and Europe on the one hand – on the other, it poses new security threats to states invested in maintaining the status quo and their identities as responsible states. For example, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom was recently quoted in the New Yorker saying “If [ Iran ] can't comply [in disarming their nuclear program], Israel cannot live with Iran having a nuclear bomb.” Similarly, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downder said that “these weapons and ballistic missiles are increasingly sought after by maverick states - those that have little regard for norms of international behaviour… Their actions are unacceptable to the overwhelming majority of nations. Of even greater concern is the very real possibility that weapons of mass destruction could fall into the hands of terrorist groups.” In particular, the threat of nuclear terrorism combined with the possibility of irrational suicidal behavior carries ambiguous implications for the delicate nuclear balances of the Cold War.

With unknown quantities of highly enriched uranium and plutonium floating around the former Soviet Union and other areas of the world, it is not surprising that WMD, and especially nuclear WMD proliferation is the greatest immediate concern of global leaders. Although many experts challenge the abilities of terrorist groups to construct and deliver such a device, a relatively small bomb — say 15 kilotons in yield, equivalent to the one used on Hiroshima - detonated in Manhattan could immediately kill at least 100,000 and cause millions of deaths in the lingering aftermath. A terrorist wouldn't need a conventional nuclear bomb to produce a panic: lethal radioactivity made of nuclear waste and dynamite, or from a nuclear power plant attacked by a hijacked plane would suffice. Internationally, an inability to surveil arsenals in Pakistan and North Korea , nuclear programs in Iran , as well as a general inability to enforce the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty pose an immediate threat to global security.