With Russia's recent incursion into Georgia - and Kosovo's declaration of independence in the face of Russian opposition - leading scholars of the region will gather on a panel to discuss related challenges for US foreign policy. Sponsored by the Watson Institute's Project on Nuclear Dilemmas in the 21st Century, this event is designed as an open forum on the issues at hand. It is free and open to the public.
Panelists:
- Abbott Gleason, Adjunct Professor, Watson Institute
- Douglas Blum, Adjunct Professor, Watson Institute, and Professor, Providence College
- Catherine McArdle Kelleher, Visiting Fellow, Watson Institute
- Ileana Porras, Visiting Professor, Watson Institute
- Nikolas Gvosdev, Professor, Naval War College
- Moderator: Nina Tannenwald, Professor, Watson Institute
Location: Starr Auditorium, MacMillan 117. Located at the corner of Thayer Street and George Street.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev is a professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College.
He was the Editor of The National Interest and a Senior Fellow of Strategic Studies at The Nixon Center. He is currently a senior editor at The National Interest.
Dr. Gvosdev is a frequent commentator on U.S. foreign policy and international relations, Russian and Eurasian affairs, and developments in the Middle East. He received his doctorate from Oxford University, where he studied on a Rhodes Scholarship.
Dr. Gvosdev is the author or editor of six books, and most recently the co-author of The Receding Shadow of the Prophet: The Rise and Fall of Political Islam.
Audio from this event:
Event Summary
The Western response to a resurgent Russia took center stage late last month at "Georgia and Kosovo: A New Cold War?" – a campus forum sponsored by the Watson Institute's new research project on Nuclear Dilemmas in the 21st Century. Although the five panelists did not focus on the issue of nuclear weapons exclusively, there was "a nuclear shadow over the event," as noted by moderator and Institute Associate Professor Nina Tannenwald.The discussion followed heightened tensions between the West and Russia brought to light by Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia in February, a move that Russia vehemently opposed despite Western support. This summer, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, areas territorially part of Georgia, but whose population has long supported independence and a gradual unification with Russia, became the latest flashpoints in Russia's foreign relations; a brief war broke out in the region on August 8 after a Georgian military campaign into South Ossetia prompted a Russian invasion and occupation of areas of Georgia beyond the two separatist provinces. The West roundly condemned the Russian occupation.
Despite the difficult relationship between a resurgent Russia and the West, the panel's answer to the titular question of whether these latest flare ups were the seeds of a new cold war was a unanimous "no." "No matter what happens between Russia, the European nations, and the United States, it will not be a new Cold War," said Adjunct Professor Abbott Gleason. "The Cold War proceeded under such vastly different conditions and enormously different states that the only real similarity it seems to me is that Russia and the US are still armed with nuclear weapons."
This is no reason for the West to relax though; the panel also concurred that relations with Russia will remain rocky at best. The lack of a united Western response to Russia's foreign policy is one of the many challenges in this area. As several speakers mentioned, the European Union was split on Kosovo's independence. The West's internal problems are naturally connected to the long identity crisis NATO has experienced since the end of the Cold War, especially after Georgia's recent bid for NATO membership. At the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest this April, after much debate, the member states promised Georgia an invitation to the alliance, though without a timetable or an official Membership Action Plan.
"The fact that they cannot come to anything other than lowest common denominator statements does not bode well for the idea of the West being able to act in unity, whether it be to Russia or any other crisis in the near future," said Naval War College Professor Nikolas Gvosdev, assessing the current dynamics of the transatlantic relationship.
Meanwhile, Russia has become more politically and ideologically solvent. After the hardships and instability that followed the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has successfully consolidated its traditional sphere of influence, reasserted control of its territory, and stoked nationalist sentiment. According to Adjunct Professor Douglas Blum, the invasion of Georgia signaled "that Russia is once again, if not the other superpower, certainly a great power – not one to be trifled with. It is the culmination of Russia's reform."
At the theoretical level, the dichotomy between the principles of sovereignty and self-determination underpinned the conversation of both the Caucasus and the Balkans. "The principal of territorial integrity is so strong that you can see why the idea of actually pulling apart an existing sovereign simply goes against the grain," explained Visiting Professor Ileana Porras. "However, it's also the case that international law does recognize the right to secession."
The panel forecasted that easy solutions to dealing with Russia will remain elusive, even with the absence of a Cold War – a frustrating prospect for a politically divided West. "At this point, one clears one's throat and says there's a lack of political leadership. You bet! All over the place," concluded Visiting Fellow Catherine McArdle Kelleher. "And it doesn't look like it's going to be available too much too soon."
By Watson Institute Student Rapporteur Paul Wozniak '09
Information on the "Nuclear Dilemmas" research is available here.