Abstract for talk, "Demography, Energy, and Emissions" by Brian O'Neill

Demographic factors such as aging, urbanization, and changes in living arrangements are rarely considered explicitly in models used to develop projections of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Yet demographers anticipate major changes in these factors over the coming decades in many parts of the world. We have undertaken a series of studies to investigate the conditions under which aggregate energy and emissions projections would be substantially affected by accounting for these projected demographic trends. In this talk I will focus on a modeling analysis of the potential affect of aging and changes in household size on future carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. This work involves the development of new long-term population and household projections for the U.S., analysis of household level consumption and income data, and the development of methodology for introducing demographic heterogeneity into a general equilibrium modeling framework. Results show that in some cases aging may reduce U.S. emissions by 30% by the second half of the century, relative to what they otherwise might be, and under some conditions can have a greater effect on emissions than technological change.