Global Environmental Futures

Friday, March 23

Assessing and Theorizing Current Practice
 

Saturday, March 24

Looking Forward

   

8:30 - 8:45


Breakfast

 
8:00 - 8:30

Breakfast
   
9:15 - 9:30 Welcome
Barbara Stallings, Director
Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University
 

8:30-9:45


Panel 6 - Scenarios and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Where Next?
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASA: The Role of Baselines in Stabilization Scenarios Analysis
Hugh Pitcher, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland:New Scenarios: The Short and Long of It
   
9:30 - 9:45 Introduction
Brian O'Neill, Simone Pulver, Stacy VanDeveer, Yaakov Garb
Watson Institute for International Studies
 
9:45 - 10:00

Coffee
   
9:45-11:00 Panel 1: Recent Scenario Experiences - Results and Processes
Edward Parson, University of Michigan: Useful Global-change Scenarios: Current Issues and Key Challenges
Monika Zurek, Food and Agriculture Organization: The Scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Process, Contents and Uptake up to Date
  10:00 - 11:15 Panel 7 - Scenarios and Climate Change Impacts - Where Next?
Joel Scheraga, US Environmental Protection Agency: The Use of Scenarios in the Provision of Timely and Useful Information to Decision Makers Coping with the Impacts of a Changing Climate
Mike Hulme, Tyndall Center: Negotiating Climates of the Future: a Critical Assessment of the Development of Climate Scenarios for the UK
   
11:00 - 11:15 Coffee   11:15 - 11:30 Coffee
   
11:15 - 12:30 Panel 2: The Scenario-Policy Interface - Practical Experiences
Cameron Wake, University of New Hampshire: Using Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios to Assess Future Climate in the Northeast US:  Successes and Challenges
David Cash, Massachusetts Office of Environmental Affairs: Making Scenarios Salient, Credible and Legitimate:  The Experience with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
  11:30 - 1:00 Final Discussion
   
12:30 - 2:00 Lunch   1:00 - 2:00 Lunch
   
2:00 - 3:15 Panel 3: Cultures and Equity in Scenario Analysis
Stacy VanDeveer, University of New Hampshire: More Thoughts on a Scenarios Research Agenda: a Discussion of the Background Paper
Paul Baer, Stanford University: Partly Cloudy, Warmer, but also Fair? Equity in Climate Scenario Analysis
     
   
3:15 - 3:30 Coffee  
   
3:30 - 4:45 Panel 4: Scenario Development - Connecting Goals and Audiences
Angela Wilkinson, Martin Institute, Oxford University: Scenario Thinking, Building and Use: Purposeful Interventions for Collective Mobilization
Cynthia Selin, Arizona State University: Anticipatory Governance through Scenarios
 
   
4:45 - 5:00 Coffee  
   
5:00 - 6:15

Panel 5: Learning Across Issue Domains - Security and Energy Scenarios
Paul Herman/Mat Burrows, National Intelligence Council: Why the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Uses Scenarios
Jonathan Koomey, Stanford University:Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Energy Scenario Analysis

 
   
7:00 Dinner  


The Watson Institute for International Studies