September 11, 2006 Five years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, the US and its Western allies are losing ground against radical Islamic terrorism, says a new report titled State of the Struggle against Global Terrorism. Al-Qaeda most likely believes it is winning the struggle, which can be expected to continue for decades if not generations, according to this preliminary report by the Council on Global Terrorism. The West must re-strategize for a sustained effort over many years, says the Council, an informal group of leading international terrorism experts under the directorship of Watson Visiting Fellow Justine A. Rosenthal.
Taking the form of a report card, State of the Struggle gives the West poor grades in such areas as “balancing security and core values” (D+) and “shaping long-term solutions” (D).
Successes since 2001 include the fact that the American homeland has not suffered an attack since 9/11, the report says. Al-Qaeda seems to have no foothold in the US. And Afghanistan has been shut down as a terrorist training ground.
Among the greatest failings, however, are global, mass radicalization among the 1.3 billion Muslims worldwide and a new terrorist training field in Iraq, the report says.
Resulting threats include another “al-Qaeda spectacular” in Europe, the arrival of suicide bombers in the United States, what is considered an imminent attack with a radiological “dirty bomb,” the reuse of already tested techniques, and the emergence of new and unconventional ways to deal the West a crippling blow. And, while the authors consider a nuclear attack unlikely, it remains a focus because of its high potential consequences.
A new long-term strategy is needed, says the Council, with all that implies in terms of allocating resources, maintaining public support, and cooperating with allies. The current, unhelpful emphasis on military action needs to be shifted, it says. “The military undoubtedly has an important role to play, but an effective counterterrorism strategy will have to do a much better job of integrating all tools of American power, including public and international diplomacy, law enforcement, money tracking, intelligence, homeland security, and foreign aid,” said Lee Hamilton, a Council member who is also president of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a member of the Watson Institute’s Board of Overseers.
Read the Council's findings and recommendations:
· Preliminary Report: State of the Struggle Against Global Terrorism
· 10 Propositions: Larger Findings of the Report
· Report Card: Threats and Initiatives Assessment
· Map: Rank Order of Regions Most Threatened by Global Terrorism